Market Condition: All Time Highs/Setups Proliferating/Breadth Hooking Up

Commentary:

Flat open. Normal Monday morning. The biggest macro group move is in Brazil on the Presidential election looking Bolsonaro will be elected instead of Lula. Other than that in terms of the market there aren’t really any big carry over narratives from the weekend.

Last week closed strong and we are looking for follow through here. In my weekend work I saw a lot of setups proliferating as we come into Earnings Season. I think there are going to be some excellent opportunities. Patience is required to be fresh to hit the strongest catalysts when they occur. We don’t need to chase.

Two main stocks in focus today. A Brazil play in PBR and also a Biotech Licensing Agreement in ALEC.

On a technical note you will see some updates in the format of my newsletters on the weekend edition and also the daily to closer reflect my current daily process. Nothing major but the ‘‘Also in Play’’ section will try to show my watchlist for alternate setups that I trade - Parabolic Short, Shoryuken (Delayed Entry Setup), Power Play (Continuation Setups). These are the names that I refer to them. I operate these on a watchlist basis. I do not scan intraday or take trades on the fly. All the work is done outside of hours.

PR Catalyst · Magnitude · Mkt cap $201.0M · Float 77M · SI 7.9% (3.3 days) · Nasdaq · Theme: Small Caps

Why: Quite a large licensing agreement with Blue-chip company (Roche). $100m Up front and up to $1.17b in Milestone payments. Even the upfront amount is very large compared to ALEC current revs and also their market cap. Two year base. $3 round number pre market. There is already an ATM Offering registered since May. We don't know yet if they have already diluted or whether they will begin today. Interestingly Roche already have their own Parkinson’s programme so this is definitely a vote of confidence.

Level: $2.75 is the support undercut and $3 is your above and below level here. Above $3 is good and below is an avoid in my opinion.

PR Catalyst · Duration · Mkt cap $139B · Float 4.0B · SI 0.8% (1.3 days) · NYSE · Theme: Oil & Gas Integrated
Why: I was trying to find a good vehicle to express the Brazilian election news. For me PBR has the best chart. Nice consolidation on daily. A lot of names in Brazil are moving notably bank stocks and energy stocks. My view is that Oil is for sure in play in the macro environment. I assume that Bolsonaro, if elected will exploit the energy sector. This is not a massive conviction idea but it looks to me as the best play out of Brazil.
Level: $24 Pre Market High

Stocks in Play Watchlist: TradingView

MRNA - Power Play - 17th September 2026 - 40% Remaining

DELL - Earnings Catalyst - 2nd September 2026 - 70% Remaining

OKTA - Earnings Catalyst - 27th August 2026 - 10% Remaining

MRNA - 4EMA Close Below - 30th September 2026 - 30% Trim

TEAM - Earnings Catalyst - 28th September 2026 - 20EMA Close Below

Monday October 5 2026
10:00 AM - ISM Services PMI (Sep) (Previous: 55.4, Consensus: 55.7)

Mon 5 Oct: TBCV - Thunder Bridge Capital Partners V, Ltd. Class A Ordinary Shares - NASDAQ - SPAC

XBI -0.4% on the week and -6.6% on the month, under its 50-day. The sector tailwind is gone for now. Reactions have to prove themselves.

Flagged Charts: MRK, IRD, AGIO, INO, ZYME, IVVD, SYRE, DFTX

Note: Never front-run biotech catalysts. Wait for the catalyst to hit, then assess if the reaction is tradable. Dates are estimates and can shift.

Full H2 Biotech Watchlist: TradingView

Have a Great Week!

Sean Sharpe