Today in Focus: AAPL, TWLO

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Market Condition: Short term extended, Bullish market higher time frame

Commentary: We’re definitely still overheated on the short term here but a lot of individual names have come right back to their 20MA and yesterday we had plenty of breakouts. Notable strength in some themes Quantum and Uranium and Metals. This is all bullish overall providing we can see some follow through.

I believe the next category of early names to focus on is likely the foundational AI layer on Software and Digital Infrastructure. The hardware side is likely appreciated by now but the Digital layer much less so.

Bullish overall here. Trying to avoid the FOMO of random breakouts has been hard and I have burned myself several times in the last two weeks giving into trying some trades outside my competence. Patience is required to wait for the best catalysts and know that they will happen. Maintaining that mental capital is critical at the moment and something I am betting every catalyst trader has found difficult in this recent run.

In Play

TWLO:  Strong Beat and Raise on Earnings + AI Foundation Theme

Key Metrics TWLO: Industry Group: Software - Infrastructure, Market Cap: 22.43B, Float: 145.08M, Short Interest: 4.46%, Days to Cover: 2.69, Sales Y/Y TTM: 13.66%, EPS Y/Y TTM: 134.49%, Earnings: Apr 30 AMC, Exchange: NASDAQ

Catalyst: Broad-based beat with durable fundamental acceleration, record non-GAAP margins, raised full-year guidance, and AI-driven product momentum. This company is doing similar things to BAND which I bought yesterday. It’s an institutional favorite. Strong chart and strong metrics. Really strong Operating leverage raising FCF and Op Income guides.

Voice AI big growth area for them. Additionally they are positioning themselves as a ‘‘foundational infrastructure layer in the era of AI’’. I think we’re at the stage where the market begins to separate out winners and losers in the Software/SaaS Field. TWLO is likely a winner with a strong moat.

Beautiful chart weekly and daily. One of the strongest plays in this earnings season IMO and something I flagged at the weekend. I think this falls less into a massive surprise and more of a confirmation that a rerate can begin on the stock with the bull case playing out.

"Based on our Q1 performance and Q2 guidance, we are raising our full-year 2026 non-GAAP income from operations range to $1.08 billion to $1.1 billion... Similarly, we are raising our full-year free cash flow guidance to $1.08 billion to $1.1 billion."

"Q1 was a milestone quarter for Twilio, marked by our highest revenue and gross profit growth rates in more than three years... Twilio's performance is the result of a multi-year, companywide evolution that fundamentally transformed Twilio's innovation velocity, GTM efficiency, and financial rigor and has led us to become a foundational infrastructure layer in the era of AI."

AAPL:  Strong Beats on All Metrics, Smooth CEO transition

Key Metrics AAPL: Industry Group: Consumer Electronics, Market Cap: 4121.46B, Float: 14.66B, Short Interest: 0.92%, Days to Cover: 2.98, Sales Y/Y TTM: 10.07%, EPS Y/Y TTM: 25.58%, Earnings: Apr 30 AMC, Exchange: NASDAQ

Catalyst: Beat across every disclosed metric; guidance materially above Street on June quarter; CEO transition context adds structural complexity but does not impair the print. Gross margin expansion and Services all-time record.

This is a boomer pick but I think the stock will appreciate here and there will be some renewed excitement at the next iteration of AAPL under the new CEO. Slower mover but good chart and easy to get size in. AAPL likely to benefit from AI without all of the spend with their GOOG partnership.

"The iPhone 17 family is now the most popular line-up in our history... we believe we gained market share during the quarter." — CFO Kevan Parekh, Prepared Remarks

"The collaboration with Google is going well... we're happy with where things are and we're happy with the work that we're doing independently as well." — CEO Tim Cook, Q&A

Current Positions: TH, BE, DELL, NVDA, SWBI, RVMD, GOOG, BAND, MRAM, SBUX

OPEN

Delayed Reaction Watchlist (TradingView Link)

_{Note: This is my methodology for identifying stocks in play. There are many valid approaches to trading catalysts—find the setups, timeframes, and risk parameters that align with your strategy.}